COVID

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Coronavirus
Political Cartoon by A.F. Branco

The Coronavirus is named after the fact that under a microscope it looks like the surface of the sun, with lots of little protrusions and bumps. These are series of diseases, but the one everyone is talking about for now, is the Chinese (Wuhan COVID-19 for COrona VIrus Disease circa 2019, or SARS-CoV-2) that's going pandemic. While the CDC, WHO and FDA all blew their response, we've never seen a more effective response to a pandemic, and the U.S. outperformed most of the world in objective metrics. But as to be expected, partisan Democrats and their media did their most to try to polarize, divide us, and maximize the harm to the American economy and people.


COVID : 17 items


COVID Death Rates - The death rate of COVID matters, because mathematically the Deaths are the numerator, the number of cases are the denominator, and the death rate is the ratio of those two. The death rate, and number of deaths tells you how fast it is spreading and how many people have it. So it's important you get these variables right, because they tell you how to respond.

The problem is the authorities lied to us about all of the important variables: the deaths was inflated, the total number of cases was undercounted, and the death rate was too high -- which panicked them about overloading hospitals, and so on. These were not simple accidents, these were concerted efforts to misinform, and a high reluctance to correct the information when it was shown they were wrong.

COVID Deaths - While the media loves to hype the infrequent hospitalizations of the young -- they are the outliers. The facts are that many people get this, few are hospitalized, and very few die (in relative numbers). But the law of large numbers applies: if you have a really small percentage of a very, very large number, you get a significant result. But the salient points are:
  • Only 6 percent of patients at one New York area health system had no chronic conditions.
  • 94% of those hospitalized had chronic health conditions, 88% had two
  • Hypertension, obesity and diabetes were common
If you're young, don't smoke, aren't morbidly obese, don't have chronic health issues, then as one researcher put it -- a 9 mile commute has higher odds of killing you due to a car accident this year than COVID.

COVID FakeNews - The media has been generating a landslide of FakeNews around COVID (SARS-CoV-2). Some of these are fabrications, most are more lies of exaggeration or omission (removing context). If you need evidence that the Media is against Americans and willing to sacrifice lives, or lie for ratings, this catastrophe alone will separate the informed from the media believers, examples include: COVID Anti-AsianCOVID is a hoaxCOVID ModelsCOVID WHOLysolgatePolarizing the shutdown

COVID Immunity and mutation rate -
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There's some dispute on the Coronavirus mutation rate. The basics are it is an RNA type virus, that's twice as complex and mutates at half the rate of the seasonal flu. Combined, that's an effective mutation rate at 1/4th the Flu. Is that slow enough that we can create vaccines? We aren't sure yet. We think so. But some Chinese researchers dove deeper and found more mutation and outcomes than expected. So need more info. On the other hand, there seems to be evidence in at least limited immunity (plasma/antibody treatment, low re-infection, and study on monkeys). Also there were a few stories about China or Korea finding patients who had been cured that later tested positive. But it is believed that it's just residual RNA fragments that haven't been flushed from the body yet. (Nothing to worry about).

COVID Overreach - When COVID happened, in general the left ignored the problem with the disease long (often too long) maximizing harm to their populations, then once they recognized an opportunity to seize power -- they took it. And they are usually the last to release it (and then as slowly as possible). They exercised that power in a specious and obnoxious as possible. You'll notice that most have a (D) after their name. Examples: Mills Newsom Whitmer

COVID Shutdown -
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The shutdown was enacted under the guise that we needed to "bend the curve" and prevent a caseload surge that would overwhelm our healthcare and have millions die waiting for ventilators. What we got was the stock market to drop 30%, GDP to drop 40%, Trillions in debt , and 30%+ unemployment (including healthcare worker laid off for lack of work). The COVID Models were off by 4-10x or more, and we never neared capacity, even in the worst hit places. We had at least twice the ventilators per capita as Germany at the start and was surging manufacturing to have many times that in months. Oh, and ventilators turned out to be the worst way to treat it (with 80% dying anyways). As long as the economy was still alive and Trump might get re-elected, they are prepared to burn the whole economy down for their political ends: creating a dependency class of unemployed dependents is what they wanted all along. The most effective mitigation is the one that does the least harm, but keeps from destroying lives: the Swedish Model. The Shutdown does the most harm possible. Despite experts from top Universities saying End the Shutdown the anti-liberty left, doesn't care about the lives they're ruining.

COVID Studies - Antibody tests are proving that continuing lockdown is senseless, and that we are completely being lied to about the denominator (how many total cases there are), which inflates the death rate and scares people unnecessarily. Examples: COVID Monkey Study Boston China Colorado Diamond Princess Germany Iceland L.A. Massachusetts Miami Netherlands NY Santa Clara Theodore Roosevelt Washington

COVID Testing - When you're trying to contain a disease break-out, testing matters. Once the disease is in the general population -- and contact tracing and controls are impractical, testing is strictly for individual diagnostics (to decide treatment) or for trend tracking in your community. This is especially true if the CFR (Case Fatality Rate) of the disease is closer to that of the flu than ebola. If the Press isn't telling you that, it's FakeNews. And if an economist is telling you we need to test everyone before we go back to work, they're idiots or frauds. Based on COVID Studies we can guesstimate that 10-20M Americans have been exposed to COVID, and that number is far higher globally. The idea that you can test all of us weekly, and contract trace everyone who shows positive is delusional. Police states don't have the resources to do this, and they aren't limited by our Constitution or armed population with a passion for civil liberties (including privacy).

COVID timeline - Timeline:
  • 2019.12.12 - Chinese state broadcaster CCTV reported that a "new viral outbreak was first detected in the city of Wuhan, China.
  • 2019.12.21 - Chinese epidemiologists with the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CCDC) published an article stating that the first cluster of patients with "pneumonia of an unknown cause" had been identified.
  • 2020.01.02 - 41 admitted hospital patients in Wuhan, China, were laboratory-confirmed to have contracted the 2019-nCoV (Novel coronavirus)
  • 2020.01.21 - 291 cases had been reported across major cities in China, including Beijing and Shanghai.
  • 2020.01.21 - the U.S. reported its first laboratory-confirmed case in the state of Washington.
  • 2020.01.24 - Japan, South Korea, and the U.S. all confirmed their second cases.
  • 2020.01.26 - the U.S. confirmed its third, fourth, and fifth cases: two in California and one in Arizona.
  • 2020.01.30 - the U.S. confirmed its sixth case, and the first confirmed case of human to human transmission within the United States (the spouse of another patient in Chicago).
  • 2020.01.31 - the U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services declared the SARS-CoV-2 virus a U.S. public health emergency.
  • 2020.02.03 - CDC submitted an Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) package to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in order to expedite FDA permitted use of the CDC diagnostic panel in the U.S.
  • 2020.02.04 - FDA issued the EUA. IRR began distribution of the test kits to states, but shortly thereafter performance issues were identified related to a problem in the manufacturing of one of the reagents which led to laboratories not being able to verify the test performance.

COVID-FAIL - The TLA's (Three Letter Agencies) like the WHO, CDC, FDA, CIA and CCP, all blew chunks and lied. Our "experts" and agencies that we poured billions into failed miserably at their charters. The WHO repeated disinformation, the Chinese CCP lied and destroyed evidence, the CIA failed to warn adequately on those lies, the CDC under-reacted at the start and overreacted later (both doing more harm than if they didn't exist), the Models were a complete fucking disaster. Basically, all the agencies meant to help, made it worse. The acronym SNAFU (System Normal: All Fucked Up) comes to mind. Without these agencies, the private sector just worked better. How do we know? Countries that responded the best: South Korea, Germany, Singapore, Taiwan -- all did the right things without the equivalent of these agencies to guide them.

Coronavirus Correction - Look, the market reacts to fear and tries to price in uncertainty. The problem is that there are magnifiers, and most often the market OVER reacts to new information. And COVID breaking out is new information -- so overcorrection in March (stampede for the exit), wild volatility until we know how our government and the people will react -- then slow stability as normalcy returns (with corrections as new information is exposed). People have been asking me investment advice or tips. The basics is you’re trying to time the market, you’re betting on "when is peak fear"? (Not peak impact of the virus, but when everyone is done over-reacting). That depends on how the government and people react, where the peak virus is, and how quickly we can learn to cope with the new reality (and fear of a virus).

Coronavirus as hate - Democrats never let an opportunity to politicize, demonize and hate go to waste. Here's a few examples where when others went high, they went low: Amy BednarzCandi CdeBacaCOVID Anti-AsianCOVID ShutdownFlu Klux KlanMusk on COVID

Coronavirus mitigation - I went to the movies the other day, and watched The Hunt. A fun slasher film. But it was also interesting seeing the regulations to mitigate the Coronavirus as implemented in San Jose (the Icon Theater at Valley Fair). The floorplan looked different, because they kept 2 empty seats between each seat pair, and no one could sit in front or behind you (a checkerboard). This prevented easy transmission. And they ran a promo at the beginning letting you know if anyone was coughing near you, ask and you could be re-seated. So they were really trying to be as accommodating as possible. But I couldn't help but wonder that theaters are not a high margin business -- and cutting the efficiency down this much, was not economically viable in the long term (or likely the short term).

Coronavirus treatment - There are a lot of positives for various treatments around COVID: Existing DrugsVaccinesHydroxychloroquine

Flu Klux Klan -
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The Flu Klux Klan is my joking term for the "never let an opportunity (to steal power) go to waste" crowd. They see everything through the lens of progressivism. They were the first to leap on the COVID Shutdown and will be the last to let up. While some are sincere, there are many that just want to hold the baby (economy) under water until the bubbles stop -- and as long as the economy was still alive (and Trump might get re-elected), they are prepared to burn the whole economy down for their political ends. After all, creating a dependency class of unemployed and clueless followers is what they wanted all along.

Herd Immunity - Herd immunity means that enough people have had a disease, that the contagion can't spread and dies out. (Basically the effective R0, or how many people each person with the disease passes it on to, is less than 1 other person). This belief leads to misconceptions.
  • Some people think that needs to be 60 or 80% of the population. Oversimplified: a disease with an R0 of 3 would require >66% of the population to have immunity so that more than 2 out of 3 people it tried to pass it to, would already have immunity -- dropping the transfer rate below 1.0 and the disease would die out. Basically, true, but there's more to it.
  • Herd immunity stacks on other measures: so if you can reduce a contagion to spreading 1/2 as fast by social distancing, hand sanitization, masks, etc., then the R0 of 3.0 is now effectively a 1.5. Which loosely means that if >33% (1 in 3) people already has it, that slows it by an additional 33%, and you're below 1.0, and it would die out. Behavior/culture modifies transfer speed (R0).
  • Distribution vectors also matter. Not everyone is equally at risk from everyone else. We have cliques and social circles (clusters/tribes). Someone in BF Idaho doesn't have an equal threat from someone in NYC or Wuhan as from their neighbor or family, because they interact with them slower and less often. If the people immunized are all the people that travel from NYC to BF Idaho, then it doesn't matter if anyone in Idaho has herd immunity, because you cut off the threads of transfer. So inoculating the 5% that travel, could offer significant protections for the other 95% of the sub-population.
This is why the 1918 Spanish Flu Pandemic only infected only 30% of the population -- and NOT 80% required to get theoretical herd immunity.

Memes-COVID - These are the meme's about COVID -- take them for what they are, some sardonic humor that pokes fun at the ironies, hypocrisy or grim realities of human nature. COVID DeathsCoronavirusLysolShutdown


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Written by: Ari Sabouni