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HomePoliticsGeneral
Cause and Effect
All actions have consequences and reactions
     By: David K. Every
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Sep 05,1998
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One very frustrating thing is watching cause and effect, actions and reactions. Many people are great at seeing a problem, and trying to fix it -- but they are far less effective at figuring out what the consequences of their fixes will be, or guessing at the third or fourth derivative effects of their actions. This is perhaps the biggest problem in American culture and politics (going for the quick fix, and not thinking through the secondary and tertiary results). Lets look at some examples of what I mean. Motorcycle Helmet laws There is one of the most basic things. We want to protect people, even from their own stupidity.
OK, so there are a few people that don't mind Darwinian survival of the fittest, and allowing the stupidest elements of society to take themselves out of the gene pool. But realistically even the most jaded cynics don't really want to see others harmed, most are just talking tough.
To protect people we make a law to require people to wear helmets when they are on motorcycles. Sounds good. People tell us that the law will make motorcyclists safer, and lower our insurance costs -- in fact, the "lowering insurance costs" argument is the rationalization that is made so that the freedom trampling law can exist in the first place. The problem is, that there has never been any proof that the benefits outweigh the costs -- and there are many costs.
  1. The most obvious cost is that helmets restrict vision and hearing -- which riders use to avoid accidents. That means that if you are wearing a helmet, you are probably more likely to get in an accident in the first place. Who knows more about what risks they should be able to take with their body, the rider, or someone who has never been on a motorcycle?
     


  2. When people are wearing helmets (and leathers, and so on), they are not as "naked" -- and human nature is that many will take more risks than they would otherwise because they feel safer than they really are. So forcing people to wear a helmet may encourage them to ride more dangerously.
     


  3. While there is less head trauma when wearing a helmet, there is no proof that this reduces healthcare costs. The added torque on the neck in accident may increase neck trauma. In fact, there is a good chance that while the brain-bucket will save the head, it may increase spinal cord injuries, or increase survivability of seriously injured people (that maybe should not survive). There is probably a higher chance that you will live -- but live as a quadriplegic or a vegetable on a life support machine, which costs society far more than if you died.

Real quickly we can see that results of the law may be the exact opposite of everything the law was supposed to do (lower insurance costs, protect people). That isn't to say that we shouldn't pass such laws, or try to make a difference (even when I personally disagree) -- but the point is that many of the consequences and costs are NOT thought out. People are attacking symptoms of problems, and not the problems themselves. If you want to reduce the severity of motorcycle accidents then outlaw motorcycles, or outlaw cars -- they don't mix well. In fact, if you get stupid people, or many bad drivers off the road, motorcyclists and all others would be safer. But people don't want to give up their freedoms for safety of others, they want to take away others freedoms (for those others own good of course). Those that fight these laws are not heartless callous bastards, nor extremist idiots, many are actually just trying to reason through the results, and do what is better long term for society (even if you don't agree). HUD HUD (Housing and urban development) has various programs that are meant to help low income people get into their own homes. Sounds great, right. Too many people can't afford a house, so lets take money from those that have, to help others. Yet not all the effects are positive -- trust me, I know. I lived in a small one bedroom Condo that I bought for $83K (a decade or so ago). Over the next couple years, the housing market was going up, and the value climbed to about $100K. Then HUD came in and approved my complex for first time buyers and low income. I figured more buyers would increase demand (and the value). The results were an influx of new neighbors, many I liked, and many I didn't. Many could not have afforded a place of their own otherwise. We know the positives, so lets look at the negatives:
  1. Many had nothing invested and were scamming the system -- they just got in the condos, and knew that it would take 6 - 18 months to get evicted (for not paying) -- and so it was like free rent. They would not have done this had they had to put $10,000 of their own dollars in up front. But with only a couple thousand in closing costs, it was profitable to cheat the system.
     


  2. Some not only scammed the system by not paying, but they even rented their units out ( keeping the money) while they were defaulting on their loans, and the system was going through the long process of taking the units back.
     


  3. Of course many HUD owners didn't have much invested -- and so they had little value in the place (both their units and the complex itself), and in fact trashed them and were contemptuous for those that cared. Why should they care, it wasn't their money?
     


  4. All this caused the value of the units to drop (renter/owner ratio going up, more empty units, a "lower" element). When the values kept dropping many of the better HUD people also decided to walk -- once they were a little upside down in their loans they had nothing to lose. While those of us who had spent far more to get in, couldn't walk away so easily.
     


  5. Banks didn't care, they were insured through the Govt. (they got paid). HUD didn't care, and sold all the reclaimed units at auction for whatever they could get that day (cash only). When Comps were going for $80K, HUD sold some Condos at auction for $43K, or even $38K (especially the trashed units). Imagine what that does to everyone else's property value. I don't have to imagine, I know.

Even if HUD had worked perfectly, then there would have been more qualified buyers for the same Condos, and it would have driven the costs of housing up. I don't see how forcing people to take bigger loans to get into a house is that big of a help. So at best it would have hurt first time buyers anyway (but since I was an owner, and wanted the values to go up, that was the seconday effect I was hoping for). Of course HUD helped some people -- but they hurt others far more. HUD did help rich people get units at way under value. In fact they helped more "rich" than they helped poorer people get into homes in the first place (since most of the poorer people eventually walked). Of course the rich people who had gotten bargains just rented the units out (and increased the rental ratio in our complex, which lowers the value further). Eventhough the units went down in value (which should help first time buyers), the units were all bought so far below market value (and at such bargains), that there is profit in keeping the units as rentals -- so fewer units are selling (and few are available to the lower income people). This is magnified by the fact that the rest can't afford to sell since they are so far upside down ($20K -$40K), and so the initial first time buyers (like myself) have to rent the units for a loss (since you can't live in one place forever). The end results of the well meaning HUD is that 5 years after they "helped" there are fewer owners in that complex, many owners were hurt to the tune of $20K - $40K, the complex is having some problems because of that, and the people who profited were the rich, the politicians, the bureaucrats in Banks and of course HUD. My starter home became a millstone thanks to HUD -- and of course I can't afford to buy another place until I can afford to get out from under the first one (another couple years I hope -- it't been 9 total). Instead of artifically raising the property values for first time buyers, they just artificially dropped the costs for the rich (who bought out the market). And now of course fewer first time buyers can find starter homes in that area.

Of course there are thousands of examples of unexpected cause and effect in life. I can take almost any issue, and start discussing it with people, and quickly show them many of the unexpected consequences of their actions. It may not outweigh the rewards, or change their agendas, but the consequences are there.
  1. Social Security has not taught people to plan for their future, and instead has taught many to let the govt. do their thinking (planning) for them. It put many on the govt. doles, and many are far worse off today than they would have been had there been nothing, and they had instead learned to take responsibility for their own retirement. So much so, that Social Security has really become nothing other than a youth tax -- where the young (who are starting out and have little) are forced to subsidize the incomes of retirees who own their own houses and have had their entire lives to save. SS has even helped break down the family bonds since people don't have to care for parents or grandparents since now they think "that is Govts. job". There are many unintended effects. American save less than about any other society in the world -- why should they?
     


  2. Welfare has taught many that they don't have to work, and they can live off of others. In fact, it has told teens that they can get a free ride in life if they just have kids. Of course the realities are not so pleasant as they think, but once lured in, it is hard to get out. (I dealt with inner-city youths for a while. Many were intentionally getting pregnant just to get out of the house and go on welfare and get a govt. paycheck for staying at home). More unintended effects. The problem of poverty has not decreased since the "war on poverty" despite trillions of dollars poured into it, because the problem is not about money.
     


  3. War on drugs has not stopped or even slowed illegal drugs. If you doubt me, ask your high school kid if he could buy a joint or some coke if he wanted. In fact the "war" has only increased the profits for running drugs, and lured many into a selling drugs for profit (maybe to get out of the welfare trap). The results are these kids often have to exist in gangs to survive, and they still get killed or imprisoned (where they cost society even more) -- remember gangs have gotten so much worse because now they are fighting over drug-distribution rights (and profits). So our prohibition on drugs has lured more youths into the wrong lifestyle, increased rewards for breaking the laws, and done nothing to really stop illegal drugs (because we can't do that). We have illegal drugs in our prisons, and they have illegal drugs in Police States (both with far less freedoms than I hope America will ever get to) -- yet our politicians keep telling us if we give up a little more money, a few more human rights and just a little more of our freedoms, then we will be able to stop drugs and things will be better. Uh huh. The truth is we can be strip-searched on a semi-regular basis, have completely unacceptable intrusions into our privacy, and those that want to make money selling drugs, and those that want to take them, will still be able to. We may be achieving the opposite of what we want to -- so far all of our actions seem to have only increased the problems.
     


  4. We have 16,000+ gun control laws, and more gun problems than ever. In fact the cities and states with the stiffest gun control laws have the worst gun problems (like L.A., D.C. and NYC) -- and the problems got WORSE after the gun laws were passed. (Of course the opposite is true in cities with the most lax gun control laws -- they had crime rates and gun problems go down). Why? In America 1.5 Million times a year guns are used to prevent crimes or in self defense. The more you limit that, the higher the likelihood that those crimes won't be prevented and that guns will only be used to abuse others. With over 300 Million guns in the country, you can't get rid of them, and can't keep them out of the hands of criminals (as proven by the drug war) -- the only thing you can do is give up freedoms and outlaw people's right to defend themselves. Definitely not the intended goals -- but that is the actual results.
      



The point is not that all these things programs (solutions) are wrong. (Though my personal views certainly tend to lean that way). The point is that all these well meaning programs had huge costs associated with them as well. Many people naively looked at the benefits and never acknowledged the costs. I understand the naiveté in youths, it shocks me when wizened elders can't think it through. (Maybe that is one of the unexpected costs of centralizing education). If you accept the consequences of your actions and laws, and think that the rewards outweigh the costs, that is one thing -- but if you don't even know they are there, or don't think about them, then that is a problem. Every action causes a reaction. Raising taxes (beyond certain unknown thresholds) causes more hoarding of money and many to hide money (off shore, in their mattress, etc.) and can destimulate the economy and often result in LESS money going to those very programs than if things had been left alone (but not always). Outlawing some actions (that people don't agree with) may just make those things more profitable and seedy -- and may encourage their action. Telling someone they can't do something, is sometimes a way to make them want to do it more. The peacenicks of the 60's and 70's meant well, and wanted us out of Vietnam -- their actions caused us to be far weaker in negotiations and in fighting (and may have contributed to politicians trying to micromanage the war) and may have delayed the victory or retreat (probably more than they encouraged it). They may have cost far more lives in their drive to save them (we don't know). We do know that their drive to get us out of South Asia (and keep us out of area) helped Pol Pot's rise to power, the Khmer Rouge, and the killing of millions of innocent Cambodians (which the CIA had been warning against). Cause and effect. Of course the peacenicks meant well, and may have been righteous in wanting us the hell out of South Asian affairs (and they were probably right that we should have never been in). But there were very high costs for their actions too -- as there always are. Making federal manditory MPG (Fuel Efficiency) restriction for cars, requires Automakers to make lighter (which means less durable and safe) cars, the results are that Auto-fatalities and serious injuries go up -- that law/regulation saved fuel and cost some lives. Reactions matter as much as actions and have to be planned for. Even if you weight the value of these issues differently than I do (and many will), one must accept that there are costs for actions. That is what perplexes me when one side vilified the other. The gross majority (on both sides) are doing what they believe is right -- just some are weighting the costs differently, and some are better at predicting the second or third derivative effects to outweigh any gains -- and acting accordingly. Some are expecting different second and third level effects. Many others aren't thinking of second and third level effects at all. It is that last bunch that I have a problem with -- we all must learn to think of the consequences of our actions.

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