COVID Models

There were models to teach us what we had to worry about with the Pandemic.

• 2020.03.13 NYT had their model which predicted 9.4M infections at peak (100M overall), and 1M dead and 366K ICU cases. That was with Social Distancing, cancelling large events and work from home. Based on what actually happened, that was pure fear mongering.
• 2020.03.17 Imperial College of London Covid-19 Response Team (Dr. Neil M. Ferguson) claimed even with Social Distancing & Quarantine, best case we would see 1.1 Million dead and Hospitals overwhelmed in America and worst case was 2.2 Million dead. FakeNews like The Intercept, NYT and CNN was hyping that.
• 2020.03.14 The CHIME model (Penn Medicines: COVID-19 Hospital Impact Model for Epidemics), was for modeling individual Hospitals and regions, and later turned out to way over-estimate the demands. But the media was more focused on national rather than regional modeling, so it didn't get as much attention unless sensationalizing the local impact of the crisis.
• 2020.03.26 The UW IHME (University of Washington, Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation), estimated 93K (39-177K) deaths, they dropped this to 82K (49-136K) on 04.07, and kept revising the numbers over time. While their initial projections in death rate were inflated, they were off by more on their Hospitalization and ICU beds (peak demand of 40,646 ICU beds, and a bed shortage of 23K ICU beds). They halved those projections over the next weeks, but were still off by 5-10x actual requirements. Regionally they were often worse.
• 2020.03.29 Donald Trump said the death projections were between 100-200K, but we expected to get that down with the latest measures and upcoming treatments and the media was aghast. MSNBC (Chris Hayes) and others accused the President of lying or sandbagging (inflating numbers). But people called them on it, and pointed out it was Fauci, the task forces numbers based on the IMHE model, so that was shut down pretty quickly.

📚 References Reason called Bullshit on Imperial College: https://reason.com/2020/03/31/2-2-million-american-deaths-from-covid-19/ COVID-FAIL Our "experts" and agencies that we poured billions into failed miserably at their charters. The TLA's (Three Letter Agencies) like the WHO, CDC, FDA, CIA and CCP, all blew chunks and/or lied, undermining faith in them amongst the rational. The mainstream media was an embarrassment, getting most stories wrong by taking the far left view of everything, and later being discredited and having to reverse themselves. By being the tools of the far left (DNC) and MSM, Big Tech (Social Media) was worse, censoring stories that didn't fit their agenda, and later it turning out all they did is magnify disinformation that they claimed to be protecting us from. And of course progressive's (politicians and individuals), in demanding conformity to the far left collective, managed to do more harm than COVID ever could. So what did we learn?