Australian Fires

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Australian Fires If they claim "Climate Change", they aren't a news source.

The media loves to sensationalize the Australian fires and blame them on Global Warming. Facts?

  • The latest 50 years are wetter than the prior 50.
  • 40% of fires are deliberately lit and 47% accidental: thus 87% are not Climate but manmade.
  • 183 people have been arrested for lighting 103 of the bushfires over the last few months.
  • Australia's firebug problem scaled up after gun confiscation (or in spite of gun control) and new poor land management polices.

Hey Climate, you're doing it wrong. The truth is that it's more a consequence of Gun Control (crime control) and poor land management.

This is not to poke fun at them, or make light of the situation; I lived with fires threatening my childhood home in SoCal, so I only feel empathy for the threatened, and wish the firefighters/victims the best). But facts are facts. Many of the people that would have used guns for mass murder / mayhem / for attention, went to using fire. We know this because the fire rate increased after Gun Confiscation. That means contrary to the media/left narrative, Gun Confiscation is a bigger contributor than Climate.Is that really an improvement?

A bigger problem is that as their land management created more national parks and doesn't clear them or allow grazing/etc., there's more fuel. (Just like happened with California).

So what can we learn?

  • The more you sensationalize fires and the firebugs, the more copycats you attract.
  • If you don’t focus on the problems (the individuals with issues), and instead punish the innocent, the problem may get bigger and worse.
  • The source of the problems isn’t lighters or matches. And certainly not Guns or Climate Change, it's bad guys with matches and the willpower to use them.
  • Government and their advocates will lie and distract to avoid taking responsibility for things they did to make the problem worse. And the gullible or partisan will believe them.

The reasonable could apply those lessons to guns/gun control. The gun controllers won't. The politicians will twist things to proving their agenda: thus outfits that blame Climate Change aren't fact-based news organization, they're political propaganda outfits.

🗒️ NOTE:
Is it causal? Not completely, not all potential shooters will become firebugs (as they call them), but some will and there are correlation and trends. So we can debate about degrees of bad, and if hundreds of fires are worse than dozens of shooting -- with reasonable people on both sides. But those that ignore that Gun Control/Confiscation contributed to this problem aren't reasonable. What we know is that simple solutions (like bans) don't actually help, they just moved the problem somewhere else. And to me, it feels like this is worse.

In 2009 (Black Saturday) there were 400 fires lit, and 173 died. In one year, in a country with a population of 25M. Adjusting for population, that would be the equivalent to 2,284 people being killed in America, in a single year, due to mass shootings. The U.S. averages about 50. So what's the bigger problem again? Would you trade gun confiscation for the loss of 2,200 more lives? That doesn't sound like a win to me.

Whether you believe gun control contributes to it or not, we know that arson and accidents (people) are having a bigger impact than Climate Change. And most of the true indicators are that Climate Change should not be having an impact or even lessening the problem. So those repeating that this is Climate Change can be ignored as Fake News sources or polemics.

Roy Spencer

A friend (Dr. Roy Spencer) pointed out the facts[1]:

  • Global wildfire activity has decreased in recent decades
  • Australian average temperatures in 2019 were well above what global warming theory can explain
  • Australia precipitation was at a record low in 2019, but climate models predict no long-term trend in Australia precipitation, while the observed trend has been upward, not downward.
  • Reductions in prescribed burning have probably contributed to the irregular increase in the number of years with large bush fires, along with a five-fold increase in population in the last 100 years has greatly increased potential ignition sources, both accidental and purposeful.


📚 References