The TLA's (Three Letter Agencies) like the WHO, CDC, FDA, CIA and CCP, all blew chunks and lied. Our "experts" and agencies that we poured billions into failed miserably at their charters. The WHO repeated disinformation, the Chinese CCP lied and destroyed evidence, the CIA failed to warn adequately on those lies, the CDC under-reacted at the start and overreacted later (both doing more harm than if they didn't exist), the Models were a complete fucking disaster. Basically, all the agencies meant to help, made it worse. The acronym SNAFU (System Normal: All Fucked Up) comes to mind. Without these agencies, the private sector just worked better. How do we know? Countries that responded the best: South Korea, Germany, Singapore, Taiwan -- all did the right things without the equivalent of these agencies to guide them.
COVID-FAIL : 4 items
COVID WHO -
- 2019.12.31 Taiwan warns WHO of atypical pneumonia spreading in Wuhan that Wuhan authorities believed "it was not SARS", WHO not only ignored it, they suppressed the information from later reports that they were warned/asked to investigate.
- 2020.01.14 WHO tweeted, "no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission of the novel #coronavirus (2019-nCoV)".
- 2020.01.29 WHO tells us not to wear masks during COVID outbreak.
- 2020.02.15 WHO's chief Tedros was telling the world, China has contained it, bought us time and is doing great... it already had person to person spread in the U.S., and China's numbers were frauds.
- 2020.03.03 Since Dec, they've repeated that the death rate of COVID is 3.4%, which the R0 (contagion) and it's less stealth and requires a different response than a disease that is spreading wider (but the death rate is lower). The facts are the R0 is likely double what the we thought and the death rate is <0.3% or 1/10th what the WHO claimed: these require radically different responses.
- 2020.04.14 WHO says that people shouldn't be allowed to Drink Alcohol during COVID lockdown as it, "exacerbate health vulnerability, risk-taking behaviours, mental health issues and violence".
- 2020.04.25 WHO scares people with misleading tweet that no evidence that people who have recovered from #COVID19 have any immunity. This is false as plasma (antibody) therapy was helping, as well as would mean we couldn't vaccinate anyone. FakeNews like Bloomberg was repeating it. So WHO deleted it and later offered an update correcting it.
COVID Models - There were models to teach us what we had to worry about with the Pandemic.
- 2020.03.13 NYT had their model which predicted 9.4M infections at peak (100M overall), and 1M dead and 366K ICU cases. That was with Social Distancing, cancelling large events and work from home. Based on what actually happened, that was pure fear mongering.
- 2020.03.17 Imperial College of London Covid-19 Response Team (Dr. Neil M. Ferguson) claimed even with Social Distancing & Quarantine, best case we would see 1.1 Million dead and Hospitals overwhelmed in America and worst case was 2.2 Million dead. FakeNews like The Intercept, NYT and CNN was hyping that.
- 2020.03.14 The CHIME model (Penn Medicines: COVID-19 Hospital Impact Model for Epidemics), was for modeling individual Hospitals and regions, and later turned out to way over-estimate the demands. But the media was more focused on national rather than regional modeling, so it didn't get as much attention unless sensationalizing the local impact of the crisis.
- 2020.03.26 The UW IHME (University of Washington, Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation), estimated 93K (39-177K) deaths, they dropped this to 82K (49-136K) on 04.07, and kept revising the numbers over time. While their initial projections in death rate were inflated, they were off by more on their Hospitalization and ICU beds (peak demand of 40,646 ICU beds, and a bed shortage of 23K ICU beds). They halved those projections over the next weeks, but were still off by 5-10x actual requirements. Regionally they were often worse.
- 2020.03.29 Donald Trump said the death projections were between 100-200K, but we expected to get that down with the latest measures and upcoming treatments and the media was aghast. MSNBC (Chris Hayes) and others accused the President of lying or sandbagging (inflating numbers). But people called them on it, and pointed out it was Fauci, the task forces numbers based on the IMHE model, so that was shut down pretty quickly.
COVID CIA - Bush lied... fiasco (where George Tenet said, "WMD's were a slam dunk") look like it was competent.
COVID CDC & FDA - The CDC's main goal is to protect public health from things like Global Pandemics (COVID). The FDA's is around drugs, treatments and medical instruments. Both screwed up epically around COVID:
- They trusted/repeated the WHO and China's numbers, which overstated deaths and understated cases -- as an agency they aren't there to rubber stamp what Communists tell them, but to validate them. By believing those numbers -- the CDC assumed the death rate was high and the contagion was low of SARS-COV-2, which meant they failed to respond in a competent way.
- They repeated the WHO in saying that we shouldn't be wearing masks, which let the contagion spread faster/further than it would have, and FDA blocked "non-authorized" masks from being made/distributed until overridden.
- When testing started, they added a 3rd component to the test, which was tainted and gave false positives. The FDA refused to let private labs produce without that 3rd tainted component -- and it delayed American testing scale up.
- They encouraged "Shelter-in-place" to cause economic ruination (depression and loss of life) without evidence that it was materially better than Social Distancing or more moderate and less harmful measures.
- The CDC encourage (and the Government incentivizes) Hospitals to overstate COVID cases.
So it is good to listen to the experts... but with critical thinking (skepticism).
- Experts were saying nothing to worry about until late January -- but based on our first death Feb 6th, it means that Social Spread was happening in mid January and the experts were clueless
- The experts models were off by orders of magnitude, predicting 2.2M deaths in the U.S. WITH Shelter-in-place and other efforts.
- The CDC and FDA totally blew it on testing -- and their numbers on fatality rates were a joke. Long after the various COVID Studies were telling us they were 1/10th or 1/30th what they were saying, they stuck to scaremongering.
Agencies paid for by politicians, and full of political appointees, are political organizations. Their agenda in this was not to calm the public, or relay the information we had -- but to lie to us for political gain. First to tell us nothing to worry about when there obviously was, then later to cry wolf when the data was showing this was a sneaky virus, just nowhere near as deadly as they were telling us. And they stuck to their exaggerations, long after they should have known better.