COVID Models

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There were models to teach us what we had to worry about with the Pandemic.

  • 2020.03.13 NYT had their model which predicted 9.4M infections at peak (100M overall), and 1M dead and 366K ICU cases. That was with Social Distancing, cancelling large events and work from home. Based on what actually happened, that was pure fear mongering. [1]
  • 2020.03.17 Imperial College of London Covid-19 Response Team (Dr. Neil M. Ferguson) claimed even with Social Distancing & Quarantine, best case we would see 1.1 Million dead and Hospitals overwhelmed in America and worst case was 2.2 Million dead. FakeNews like The Intercept, NYT and CNN was hyping that. [2]
  • 2020.03.14 The CHIME model (Penn Medicines: COVID-19 Hospital Impact Model for Epidemics), was for modeling individual Hospitals and regions, and later turned out to way over-estimate the demands. But the media was more focused on national rather than regional modeling, so it didn't get as much attention unless sensationalizing the local impact of the crisis. [3]
  • 2020.03.26 The UW IHME (University of Washington, Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation), estimated 93K (39-177K) deaths, they dropped this to 82K (49-136K) on 04.07, and kept revising the numbers over time. While their initial projections in death rate were inflated, they were off by more on their Hospitalization and ICU beds (peak demand of 40,646 ICU beds, and a bed shortage of 23K ICU beds). They halved those projections over the next weeks, but were still off by 5-10x actual requirements. Regionally they were often worse. [4]
  • 2020.03.29 Donald Trump said the death projections were between 100-200K, but we expected to get that down with the latest measures and upcoming treatments and the media was aghast. MSNBC (Chris Hayes) and others accused the President of lying or sandbagging (inflating numbers). But people called them on it, and pointed out it was Fauci, the task forces numbers based on the IMHE model, so that was shut down pretty quickly. [5]


📚 References


The Coronavirus is named after the fact that under a microscope it looks like the surface of the sun, with lots of little protrusions and bumps. These are series of diseases, but the one everyone is talking about for now, is the Chinese (Wuhan COVID-19 for COrona VIrus Disease circa 2019, or SARS-CoV-2) that's going pandemic. While the CDC, WHO and FDA all blew their response, we've never seen a more effective response to a pandemic, and the U.S. outperformed most of the world in objective metrics. But as to be expected, partisan Democrats and their media did their most to try to polarize, divide us, and maximize the harm to the American economy and people.

COVID FakeNews

The media has been generating a landslide of FakeNews around COVID (SARS-CoV-2). Some of these are fabrications, most are more lies of exaggeration or omission (removing context). If you need evidence that the Media is against Americans and willing to sacrifice lives, or lie for ratings, this catastrophe alone will separate the informed from the media believers, examples include: COVID Anti-AsianCOVID is a hoaxCOVID WHOLysolgatePolarizing the shutdown


The TLA's (Three Letter Agencies) like the WHO, CDC, FDA, CIA and CCP, all blew chunks and lied. Our "experts" and agencies that we poured billions into failed miserably at their charters. The WHO repeated disinformation, the Chinese CCP lied and destroyed evidence, the CIA failed to warn adequately on those lies, the CDC under-reacted at the start and overreacted later (both doing more harm than if they didn't exist), the Models were a complete fucking disaster. Basically, all the agencies meant to help, made it worse. The acronym SNAFU (System Normal: All Fucked Up) comes to mind. Without these agencies, the private sector just worked better. How do we know? Countries that responded the best: South Korea, Germany, Singapore, Taiwan -- all did the right things without the equivalent of these agencies to guide them.